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Forget about Europe, worry about Indian recession says NY Time Economic View
Tyler Cown of NY Times points out why India is headed for a recession and the worst hit are the poor people of India.
Tyler Cowen of NY Times points out that Indian economy faces a real slowdown and what is worrisome is the uneven distribution of the impact of the recession.
Poorer Indian are facing biggest hit from the recession. The wealthier Indians will get spared as the economy of India will still grow at 5 to 6% per year for the next several years.
A massive unemployment looms in the horizon of the educated middle class Indians. The craze about somehow becoming a science or engineering graduate will be over in a few years. Indian recession will be the recession of Engineers and MBAs.
India's strength is its Government run high tech companies like ISRO, HAL, BHEL and so on. India's weakness centers around its relatively uneducated business and industrial leaders who focused all along on consumer goods and export of ''people'' instead of high tech products. Mr. Cowen overlooks this point. He belives India's problem comes from not letting WalMart enter the country and retrospective taxation and declining climate on foreign investment. He is wrong. his ignorance is understandable as an American in America.
Mr. Cowen is right about one thing that India will be largest economy in size by end of this century.
Most likely, India will first suffer a deep depression for at least five to ten years. Nest year By 2013 Indian currency may reach Rs 100 per dollar. Indian software exports will falter and a massive exodus of foreign companies trying to make quick bucks selling cars etc. will follow. India will see the return of its well educated expatriates in a few years. These NRIs will [provide the real leadership from 2018 to 2100 which will make Chinese economic success miniscule.
BIZ/FINANCE ARTICLES
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