U.S. general Petraeus determined to wipe Taliban out from Afghanistan and Pakistan - what will Pakistan's core shadow ISI do?
Kiran Chaube
Feb. 21, 2010

International Geo politics is more complex than you can think of. American General Petraeus is determined to uproot Taliban from Afghanistan. The strategy may be to make the Pakistani Taliban (the real center piece of Islamic extremism) realize the odds of not accepting a respectable face saving surrender.

But there is some major miscalculations from the American side that can topple all odds. It is the shadow ISI, the core Pakistani military power structure sympathetic towards Islamic extremism and fundamentalism.

Can you really exterminate a house of rats without getting rid of the rodent den? That is the mistake US President George Bush made. That is the same mistake progressive US President Obama(surrounded by by conservatives like Robert Gates) is making.

Yes, India can be used against Islamic fundamentalism. Yes, India is eager to see a friendly Afghan power structure that opposes Talibans. Yes, India is a great newly found friend for America. But that will not solve the long term problem of Islamic extremism and fundamentalism in the region.

You can get rid of Talibans in the southern Afghan town of Marjah. But with the help of Pakistani ISI there are hundreds of thousands of Taliban equivalents ready to fight Americans and Indians from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and even within pockets of India. That is the den of terrorism and Paksian's ISI leads it.

The relationship between Central Intelligence Agency and Pakistan's ISI is very complex. Each side is confident that they can use the other side. In reality CIA and ISI are real enemies but for the time being they are acting like friends, really a self-denial mode when two enemies refuse call the other an enemy.

Gen. David Petraeus says the campaign probably will last 12 months to 18 months and is part of the revised U.S. strategy for fighting insurgents in Afghanistan. The echos are similar to the Soviet Generals in 1985. The parallels between current American campaign in 2010 and the Soviet invasion in 1985 are scary.

Let us go back to 1985. Replace President Obama with Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev. Replace Taliban with Mujahideen. You will find history is probably repeating.

Believe it or not, on his arrival in power in March 1985, the new Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev expressed his impatience with the Afghan conflict. He demanded that a solution be found before a one-year deadline. As a result, the size of the LCOSF (Limited Contingent of Soviet Forces) was increased to 108,800 and fighting increased throughout the country, making 1985 the bloodiest year of the war. However, despite suffering heavily, the mujahideen were able to remain in the field and continue resisting the Soviets. Can 1985 of the Soviets be American's 2010? Only time can say!

During those days, the US viewed the conflict in Afghanistan as an integral Cold War struggle, and the CIA provided assistance to anti-Soviet forces through the Pakistani intelligence services (ISI), in a program called Operation Cyclone. These days Americans are confidently using the same Pakistani ISI channels in attempts to infiltrate the Taliban core terrorist hubs. And that is where the problem lies.

Pakistani ISI fought the Soviets because Soviets were the the real power behind India, Pakistan's arch rival. Today, ISI's internal power structure that controls Pakistan's military command and control through General Kiani's power base is reluctant to help the Americans because they support the Taliban. On the surface, General Musharaf or Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani will never oppose Americans or the CIA because they do not want to become another ''Saddam of Iraq.''In addition, they love the American billions of dollars that come as ''Tofa'' (tips). But Pakistani ISI is a part and parcel of the core Taliban power base. Otherwise neither Taliban nor Osama Bin laden can live and operate terror from Pakistan!

NATO and America are trying to provide a permanent cure for Afghan Geo politics. However, like the Soviets, they are making several major mistakes. First, they have a puppet regime in Kabul that got elected by rigging the election. People of Afghanistan jokes about the American puppet in Kabul today just like they joked about Soviet Puppets in the early and mid eighties.

Americans won the covert war against Soviets in Afghanistan because of their secret help to mujahideens. As stated by the former director of the Central Intelligence Agency and current US Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, in his memoirs From the Shadows, the US intelligence services began to aid the rebel factions in Afghanistan six months before the Soviet deployment. That was the key to US success in those days. You can win easily by helping a native Afghan movement from outside because common people in the country never like foreign looking soldiers, their artillery, air crafts, and gunships. That is the second mistake Americans have made. They should have used the anti-Taliban Afghan militia to uproot the Taliban.

The third and the biggest mistake America has made is to depend upon NATO and Pakistan. NATO creates the perception that some white countries got together in a dinner table and decided to attack Afghanistan and put their way of Governance in the country. The white soldiers of NATO look like the white soviet soldiers of mid eighties. And that creates a anti-nationalistic feeling for any Afghan. The biggest mistake for America is their trust in their Pakistani ISI friends. Fighting the mujaheddin and Taliban are not the same thing. When you ask Pakistan to start commuting suicide, what do you expect they will do? Will they oblige the same way when you asked to them to kill the Soviets, the foreign invaders?

America is neither popular in Iraq nor in Afghanistan. No power in the history has ever won a war on a longer term basis without the support of the native people. Kublai Khan conquered lots of land and kingdom with brutal force. But soon the Mongolians learned the hard way that the subordination of ethnic pride can only be temporary. America's biggest defeat is happening in its collapsing economy and financial meltdown. America is printing money to fund these wars while massive number of Americans continue to lose their homes, jobs, and die without health care. Yes, one can win local wars in Iraq or Afghanistan with far superior forces and technologies. But what good is that if people within America suffer from lack of opportunities and medical care? Does all these sound like Soviet Union's mistakes in eighties?

Afghan war and military adventurism was the root cause of Soviet economic and social collapse. Only time can say what is in the fate of America. One thing for sure every American need to question their military and political leaders, how long can wars be funded by printing dollars and borrowing money from China and elsewhere? Guess what? The latest new is : Pakistan has told the US it wants a central role in resolving the Afghan war and has offered to mediate with Taliban factions who use its territory and have long served as its allies, the influential US daily said in a report from Islamabad on Wednesday. The offer, aimed at preserving Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan once the Americans leave, could both help and hurt American interests as Washington debates reconciling with the Taliban, it said.

"Pakistan's army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, made clear Pakistan's willingness to mediate at a meeting late last month at NATO headquarters with top American military officials," the Times said citing a senior American military official familiar with the meeting.

This is what happens when you rely on the fox to guard the hens!

MORE ARTICLES >>