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Economy shrank 1% in Q2, new home sales jumped 11% in June, where will Dow go from here?
Fred Day
Jul. 31, 2009
The US economy did hold up with the one trillion dollar borrowed stimulus money. It continued to shrink in the second quarter making this recession the longest on record, but the more moderate decline lifted hopes that government stimulus measures could be loosening the grip of the downturn. Interestingly the new home sales sales jumped 11% in June. The biggest question is where does Dow Jones Industrial Average go from here?
Every sane analyst knows the bear market recovery snap backs are always marvelous. They are short lived but can cause serious panic in the pocket books of the bear. Dow Jones Industrial Average will top out in a month or less around 10,000 mark. The fundamentals are very bearish. The bear markets next leg will be devastating because there will be no stimulus money available.
The real estate still is the biggest threat. Commercial real estate will lead the next downturn in the second half of the year. The Dow can below 3,000 mark in the next eighteen months dragging the economy to an official depression and posting unemployment far above 15%.
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