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US Retail Sales and Citigroup’s problems signal first US depression since 1930s
Sam Adelton
Jan. 15, 2008

While analysts are hesitant to call it a mild recession, the economy finally confirmed a deep recession racing towards a deep depression. The financial meltdown continues while scarce commodities make things costlier.

The D word is nasty among the economists. But the reality check shows the economy is headed for a deep depression. The unemployment rate will never reach above 10%. The reason is simple. People are very confident they will not get any decent jobs and therefore they do not even try. Instead they start a small consulting business after getting laid off. Some try and get retrained only to find that employers in every field needs experienced workers – not just some laid off workers trained by untrained community college professors.

Citigroup says its going to make it after cutting its dividend by 41 percent because of rising home-loan defaults. The fact of the matter is major US and European banks will be bankrupt before 2010. A massive Government bailout will fail to stop the avalaunch that started in 2005 due to complete fiscal mismanagement. The retail sales unexpectedly dropped and falling oil prices dragged down energy shares. The oil can trade again at $30 or 40 a barrel. It may seem ridiculous but that is exactly what happens when a bubble bursts. And this one was the mother of all bubbles.


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US Retail Sales and Citigroup’s problems signal first US depression since 1930s
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