Dollar may be at a bottom and gold at the top even though Fed plans to cut more rates
Joe Weinman
Jan. 1, 2008

Fed will no doubt cut rates to aide the economy. But the currency market always has a tendency to look well in advance. Normally the currency markets start rallying as the Fed cuts the rates for the last time.

This time it may not be much different. The year 2008 may start as gloomy but may not end that way. The real estate will rally. The stock market may continue sideways and top out in 2008. The economy may stabilize and oil price can move sharply down.

From a contrarian point of view dollar will rally sharply in 2008. The gold may have seen a long term top in $850 an ounce. The analytical and quantitative models show stabilization in dollar against European and other major currencies as Yuan appreciation accelerates.

The yuan appreciation is an issue that will see some hot political debates between US and China as Chinese economy slows down appreciably. China looks for creating new 25 million jobs every year at the cost of American and European jobs. They will not allow rise of Yuan so easily.

At the same time Europe is poised to slow down taking Euro, British Pound, and Swiss Francs with it. Canadian and Aussie dollar can also go south as oil and metals enter a new bear market.

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