Weak dollar boosts US exports –will it be enough to avoid a depression?
Marla Guthrie
Nov. 10, 2007

No want wants to hear the D letter. It stands for depression and deflation. The weakness in US Dollar is cherished by some financial Guru’s. US exports are finally edging up significanly as Dollar gets devalued in the open currency markets. The gold is rising in dollar terms but actually falling when comared tooil in euro currency terms. The technical models are predicting a deep recession in US next year. The opponents of this viwe argue that US economy will be growing at a moderate rate with higher exports.

The biggest question of the day is just one. Will the increase in exports be enough to offset the effects of mortgage meltdown, exploding oil price and stagnating wages?

The quantitative models that track stock market as guide to future economic ups and downs are showing a massive businsess cycle top that matured in 2005. The topping action continued from 2005 till 2007. Now the markets are cracking up as violent third leg of the massive economic down cycle take hold.

The gains in US export is evident from the trade reports. But with lower dollar, the imported crude oil bill is also very high. . Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson defended the U.S. dollar's status as the world's main currency after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty decried its slide. The US economy is falling into the hole of a recession. The European and Asian economies can actually get dragged into a deep depression.

Weak dollar boosts US exports –will it be enough to avoid a depression?
Marla Guthrie
The biggest question of the day is just one. Will the increase in exports be enough to offset the effects of mortgage meltdown, exploding oil price and stagnating wages?
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