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A great opportunity to go long on US Treasuries
Peter Oberois
Oct. 7, 2007

The sudden fall in US Treasuries and corresponding rise in yield is a buying opportunity. The bond market went down after the job report not only showed a 110,000 increase in payroll for September but also a sharp upward revision in August employment led by local school teaching jobs.

But if you look at the job reports, there is not much to cheer about. The August revision is seasonal. The September unemployment went up 0.1%. What is significant is that there is precipitous drop in the last four months the mortgage debacle started in help wanted ads.

It has become more difficult to find well paying jobs. The GM-UAW deal is also significant. It signifies the end of well paying respectable manufacturing jobs in the world. The wage deflation is here. People are spending based on their inflated credit card balances. The end game is on schedule with a big bulge on personal credit after home refinancing fiasco ended in a bubble burst.

Bonds are now great buys. It is a great opportunity to go long on US Treasuries.



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