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Although Treasuries have raised the most since March on subprime crisis, the party in the furthest end of the yield curve may not survive for long
Karen Zuba
Jul. 22, 2007
The key is dollar. As dollar falls, the inflation goes up. Gold rises and that gives more impetus for investors to pull money from the long end of the Treasury notes and bonds and redeploying them in precious metals.
For now the market is in a stage of severe shock. Who thought professional investment banking firms, banks, and financial services entities with so many high flying MBAs and million (even billion) dollar investment gurus will make such mistakes!
The confidence in the financial systems is getting reduced. For now the Treasuries are rising for the flight to quality. But on the long run, things will be different – very nasty. If dollar falls below 78 in dollar index, there will be initial central bank interventions especially from Europe. If central banks fail to stop the slide in US dollar, a financial meltdown will occur. There will be massive exodus from log end of the US Treasuries. The shorter end of the curve will not be much affected as Federal Reserve will aggressively lower the rates to fight a real estate and loan loss driven recession tending to turn into depression.
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