Syria hands over Saddam’s half-brother – is Baathist insurgency coming to an end or starting a new cycle of sophistication?
Sonia Chopra
Feb. 28, 2005

In this image made available by the U.S. Defense Department, Sabawi Ibrahim Hasan, a half brother of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein has been captured, officials in the Iraqi prime minister's office said Sunday Feb. 27, 2005. Hasan is No. 36 on the U.S. list of 55 most-wanted Iraqis. Officials in interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's office, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed the capture.

The question that is floating in the whole of Middle East is: Is this a total compromise by Syria or is it just a situation where some Baathists are handed over who were merely hiding from Iraqi authorities?

The answer to this question really lies in the fact where the insurgency in Iraq is driven from – Syria or Iraq itself? There was no doubt that some Baathists fled to Syria but were they actively involved in the insurgency?

According to international think tanks, Saddam’s brother was in US list but no one knows how far he was involved in the insurgency.

There were close to 48,000 Fedayeen soldiers before the war. They were loyal to Saddam and his sons. Many at the time of the war in 2003 predicted that they will fight till the end. They did not. They simply change clothes to civilian outfits took their arms and ran into the crowds of common people.

There may lay the answer to the question – where this insurgency is coming from?

Another factor is the fact that it is possible that Iraq insurgency is totally decentralized with out any central command and control structure. That can be scary. In other words the whole operation is run by small individual groups of Fedayeens.

Another factor to consider is the Al-Queda factor. Where are they? Are they collaborating with the Fedayeens?

One explanation can be that Saddam and his followers have zero control over the insurgency. The way Saddam’s sons were killed, Saddam was captured and his half brother is handed over may have shown that he lost power when the war started and no one really cared for them.

If Iraqi insurgency escalates in the next few months, it will show that the US list of Saddam’s assistants may not be running the insurgency. Since most of them are in custody.

Syria hands over Saddam’s half-brother – is Baathist insurgency coming to an end or starting a new cycle of sophistication?
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