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ISM manufacturing index stagnates – what is the effect on the economy, stocks, and bonds?
Bernie Snyder
Jul. 2, 2007
The manufacturing index is supported by the military needs of the Iraq war. But that is coming to an end soon. The manufacturing index is stagnating while a lot of incentives are working to support it like low dollar, foreign demand, and so on.
But the bull cycle in manufacturing with a larger secular bear cycle may be coming to an end. That can be catastrophic for the economy, stock market, and dollar. A crashing dollar can crash world financial systems.
A Stagnating ISM manufacturing index is not a great sign, although it points to a softer landing than recession. Given the less robust ISM number and the burden of falling real estate, the bond market is happy. Stock market does not know whether to smile or to cry!
The economy is stagnating with high inflation from Asian emergence of prosperity. Commodity inflation and Asian wage inflation are the root cause of the stagflation. Stagflation lowers the standards of common hard working people – the middle class.
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