Crude oil silently moving towards creating a new high – will the effect on stock market be catastrophic?
Sam Adelton
Jun. 30, 2007

The crude oil analytics, technical trends, and fundamentals point to $80 per barrel or slightly lower. It is a stealth bull market caused by something you will not believe.

The distillers that convert the crude oil in US into derivatives like gasoline planned to flood the market this year. They had decided to create unprecedented levels of gasoline to take advantage of the high price.

For that, they need a lot more crude oil that the wholesalers and warehouses anticipated. These distillers are buying the crude oil right and left. There is a shortage of crude oil, but not gasoline. Remember the price of crude oil is a function of demand and supply. The available crude oil in US will determine the price for the August and September contract. Much of that oil is already on the ocean.

As a result, crude oil will make new highs and the gasoline may actually fall. The crude oil will rise close to $80 a barrel in the next five weeks. After that it will fall back to the sixties and even lower.

The stock market will suffer from crude shocks. But the gasoline in the pumps will actually cost less because of oversupply of crude oil. As a result it is not really bearish for the stock market. Although panicked hedge funds and private equity funds will buy crude and sell stocks.

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