Oil will continue to fall Dow will the downtrend in oil - can Dow crash?
Peter Oberois
Apr. 10, 2007

The stagflation is affecting the stock market. The market’s initial ecstasy in lower oil price was shirt lived. The stock market worldwide is falling rapidly again. The economy is showing signs of stagnation while inflation is decreasing. The bond market actually is singing some warning signals. This is the very early stage of deflation. Many economists call it disinflation. The economy is headed down with soft real estate and down trending manufacturing sectors. Consumer and business confidences are also down.

The million-dollar question is how likely is it that stock market will crash in the 1987 or 1929 style? The answer is – it depends. All ingredients are in place for a massive crash and meltdown. However, the tax law changes affecting the taxation of dividends can create the safety cushion. The stock especially the dividend paying stocks can act like municipal bonds with little movement on the upside and downside. Analytics point out unless the economy tanks rapidly, stocks may hang in there for a long time.

Oil will continue to fall Dow will the downtrend in oil - can Dow crash?
Peter Oberois
The stock especially the dividend paying stocks can act like municipal bonds with little movement on the upside and downside. Analytics point out unless the economy tanks rapidly, stocks may hang in there for a long time.
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Crude oil in steep slide as lack of demand and oversupply embraces the market in absence of geopolitical gyration
Peter Oberois
Crude oil bulls say – in the last twenty years no new reserves were unleashed. Well that is true to some extent; the existing reserves right now are yielding levels never imagined before.
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High demand for Treasury inflation- protected securities (TIPS) shows Fed has lost control over economy and markets – stagflation hits main streets
Alan Hershey
High demand for Treasury inflation- protected securities (TIPS) conforms the stagflation theory. If that is the real underpinning in the economy, the Dow can stay between 11,000 and 13,000 for the next twenty years.
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Unemployment rate fell to a six-year low of 4.4% but underemployment skyrocketed up – the long term effects on stocks, bonds and currencies
Peter Oberois
Simply put, if people cannot get jobs they deserve, they have to accept burger-flipping jobs. That creates underemployment – a typical characteristics in poor developing countries.
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Oil will continue to collapse towards $50 a barrel and stock market will join the downtrend
Sam Adelton
But a point has reached when over supply of oil will make it come down sharply. The stock market will start the downward journey as economy starts going south under deflation.
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Real Estate recovery can last two years but brokers will get wiped out
Karen Zuba
The title insurers, the attorneys, the real estate brokers, the appraisers, the mortgage brokers, the inspection companies…. the list goes on who make big bucks on home resale.
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The bond market correction an ideal opportunity for trade as deflation expands its grip on economy – a steady slide in stock market lies ahead in April
Peyter Oberois
The corrective trend in the bond market is setting the stage for a fantastic rally in the debt markets. The higher than expected payroll rise has seasonal effects and is cyclical move within a new secular up trend in the employment rate.
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