Lumber price analytics and builder confidence point to a bottom in real estate price
Peter Oberois
Mar. 19, 2007

In the last thirty years two things have correctly predicted the future real estate prices. The first is the lumber price and the second is the homebuilder confidence. When these two reaches extreme pessimism, the real estate market bottom. It may be happening again now. The lumber price has crashed since the last year. The homebuilder confidence shows they are embracing a massive depression in the sector.

Analytical models interpret this to sentiment conditions that lead to new bull market. At least it is clear; there will be very fierce and solid corrective rally now if not the birth of a new bull market. There are clear signs that commercials are buying lumber futures. That is bullish for the real estate market. The builders have cleaned out the old inventories and the pipeline new homes are far less in number. This is very bullish for the next twelve months.

Long-term complacency in the stock market highest ever since 1929 – a catastrophic collapse waits
Sam Adelton
In that scenario, the Dow can gap open and fall limit down 500 points for two consecutive weeks ending at 6,000. It will be devastating for any investor that does not own some sort of index put option in that scenario.
READ MORE>>

Lumber price analytics and builder confidence point to a bottom in real estate price
Peter Oberois
In the last thirty years two things have correctly predicted the future real estate prices. The first is the lumber price and the second is the homebuilder confidence. When these two reaches extreme pessimism, the real estate market bottom.
READ MORE>>

Where will the real estate go from here?
Joe Weinman
The housing demand is rising. More homes are needed in the long run. The bearish factor is that the housing bubble that did burst last year needs time to get settled.
READ MORE>>

A sharp rise in stock markets worldwide confirms the April 2007 stock market crash theory
Karen Zuba
The market is correcting from a very oversold situation. The sharper the corrective rally, the nastier is the actual bear market in the long run.
READ MORE>>

A stealth bullish signal for gold
Peter Oberois
The mega merger bubbles, lower interest rates, the higher inflation in Asian economies and increasing US budget deficit – all are helping the higher gold price.
READ MORE>>

Homebuilders leading the deflation driven depression as merger and acquisition mania creates another mega-bubble
Sam Adelton
Homebuilders leading the deflation driven depression. Tightening of the borrowing standard has made these builders layoff thousands. The loss of jobs is very high.
READ MORE>>

Declines industrial metals and oil show the deflationary downtrend in stock markets and economies
Neal Sunders
The oil is takes two step backward and one step forward. The industrial metals and alloys like copper, steel and others are slowly retreating from a parabolic top.
READ MORE>>

MORE ARTICLES >>