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Dow may have quietly topped out – April can be the month crash
Sam Adelton
Feb. 23, 2007

The stock market is showing extreme signs of complacency and tiredness. It has experienced the longest rally since 1929. In 1929, the market similarly topped out quietly with very low volatility and high complacency. The crash of 1987 was a little different. The volatility was high and a fantastic bubble did form. Alan Greenspan, the new Fed chairman that time wanted to bring the bubble to froth. The market could not tolerate the sharp rise in interest rates from Fed – it crashed.

April is the worst month for stocks, not October as you may think. We may have a crash in April in the middle of complacency and heavy bullish sentiment.

In futures market, there is a proverb. It says whenever you feel you have brought the world in its knees; get ready for a thorough bath. It is the time that gets out of positions and be ready for the worst.



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