1962, 1973, 1981, 1987 and 2000 - do you see a pattern of stock market trouble? What is in store for 2007-2008?
Special Correspondent
Jan. 14, 2007

1962, 1973, 1981, 1987 and 200 all were years when you should not be in stock market. These years were signatures of bubble bursts and collapse in stock prices. The progression in 11 years (1962 to 1973), 8 years(1973, 1981), 6years(1981-1987), 13 years(1987-2000).

If you follow the pattern right, trouble is in 2007-2008. It may stretch out to 2009. There is one major problem though. All these years showed higher broader stock market. In other words till 2000, we saw secular bull market. Now the broader stock market is actually lower than the 2000 highs by more than 50%! That says we are in a secular bear market but in cyclical bull cycle.

Analytical models and quantitative studies say, in a bear market the downtrend can be severe and sudden, It may happen any time. The cycles studies applicable in a bull market does not apply any more.

When selling starts and the smart money pulls the plug, the will be scare, chaos and total financial meltdown in the stock pits. The pits these have seen mergers and acquisitions and are mostly electronic. It took a weak in 1987 for 25% of stock market assets to disappear. It will hardly few days for that to happen as wired markets will create a chill in hedge fund managers.

1962, 1973, 1981, 1987 and 2000 - do you see a pattern of stock market trouble? What is in store for 2007-2008?
Special Correspondent
When selling starts and the smart money pulls the plug, the will be scare, chaos and total financial meltdown in the stock pits.
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