Boom bust cycles in real estate, stocks and dollar shows stocks are headed for a massive fall in 2007
Peter Oberois
Dec. 10, 2006

Analytical studies that involve cycle analysis in real estate, stocks, dollar and gold are revealing some interesting data. Smart money in the last 100 years have moved in and out of real estate market in a periodic sinusoidal cycle. It has recycled itself between stocks, gold and real estate very systematically.

The real estate market absorbs the money whenever the stock market goes down in a multi-year bear market. The model adjusts for baby boomer effect in real estate and stocks. The real estate market continues to boom three to four years after a major bear market in stocks. Most of the time it has actually created a bubble before growing down sharply. In 1987, the stock market crashed but real estate boomed into 1988-89 before going down significantly. Interestingly, stocks normally follow after that with the real estate and bottom together. The money comes back into stocks faster and real estate continues to recover over a longer period of time.

The model says stock are in trouble in 2007 while real estate will continue to falter for another two to three years. When stocks and real estate markets falter, it is bearish for gold. That is the time when dollar should prosper.

A cycle studies in US Dollar manifests high probability in US Dollar index to double in the next seven years. Sometime most unexpected things happen. If that happens, you are looking at massive bear markets for the next seven years in gold, stocks and real estate.

Boom bust cycles in real estate, stocks and dollar shows stocks are headed for a massive fall in 2007
Peter Oberois
Sometime most unexpected things happen. If that happens, you are looking at massive bear markets for the next seven years in gold, stocks and real estate.
READ MORE>>

Hedge funds major loss accelerated - Goldman Sachs flagship hedge fund Falls 12 Percent – the real calamity is ahead
Fred Day
A fall of 2000 points in a month in Dow will wipe out thousands of hedge funds like Amaranth that trade derivatives on stocks. The trading floors will start refusing accepting orders. The clearing houses will be shaken for ever.
READ MORE>>

US treasuries yield will rise as US economy fights the recession with service jobs – what is the impact on stocks, Euro and Gold?
Marla Guthrie
On Friday job report, the US economy added more than 130,000 jobs. The most lost were in real estate related areas. The most job gains were from business services sector. The trend is clear now.
READ MORE>>

Gold shows signs of topping, sticks are tired, oil demand slacks, recession is here but there is a positive side to it
Sam Adelton
It will not be the iPods and Microsoft’s childish software that will dominate. The days of kiddy high tech entrepreneurs are gone. It will be replaced by advanced business intelligence service sectors and engineering innovations.
READ MORE>>

Fed will raise rates twice starting March 2007 – bullish for dollar bearish for stocks
Joe Weinman
Next year, there is more than 68% probability in a high confidence level that Fed will raise rates two times starting in March to cope up with inflation. Then they will pause again. That will be very bearish for stocks.
READ MORE>>

MORE ARTICLES >>