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As predicted oil price in long term bear market - breaks the $57 base
Peter Oberois
Nov. 17, 2006
The oil price is headed down. The economic fundamentals are weak to support price above $30 a barrel. Most likely oil will surprise all by breaking into the twenties befor pushing somewhat higher again.
The poor real estate market, the underemployment, the stagflation and lowering of standard of living in the developed nations are acting as the real drag. There is no pricing power. The Chinese and Indian economy did fly long with one broken engine. Now the reality is going to hit the ground. These developing economies will crash while the developed economies continue to suffer lower standard of living over a long range of time.
The budget deficit, trade deficit and the adverse balance of payment will force Government to cut expenses or stop wasting money. That in turn will depress the economy. That in turn will increase the budget deficit. That will eventually hurt the stock market, oil and other commodity demand.
Oil market is lower not because of over supply. The fact is there is very little demand and the hedge funds are finally running for the cover. They have lost money in natural gas, now in oil and of course in real estate. They will finally learn their lesson in metals market as China turns to its domestic supplies and Asian economies collapse.
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