UK showing clear signs of stagflation now - unemployment rose in October to the highest level in almost five years
Peter Oberois
Nov. 15, 2006

The unemployment rate rose in UK to the highest level in five years. UK economy is leading as pilot ahead of the US economy in the last few years. The central bank in UK is now perplexed. They need to raise rates to contain inflation but at the same time the unemployment is rising. This is a typical scenario in stagflation plagued environment.

The number of people in UK claiming jobless benefits rose 1,200 to 961,300, the most since December 2001, the Office for National Statistics said in London. That is alarming. UK real estate market topped out last year way ahead of US real estate market.

UK showing clear signs of stagflation now - unemployment rose in October to the highest level in almost five years
Peter Oberois
The number of people in UK claiming jobless benefits rose 1,200 to 961,300, the most since December 2001....
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Natural gas price can quadruple as Russia plans to set up a cartel like OPEC in Natural Gas – worldwide recession?
Alan Hersey
They thought they can get away from the crude oil price control by OPEC. Now they face a new cartel headed by the Russia.
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WalMart actions show underemployment the biggest problem in the economy – bearish for stocks
Sam Adelton
The WalMart results finally manifest the biggest problem of the economy. It is underemployment. People in Main Street are feeling poorer because salaries are not going up compared to real inflation.
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Stagflation finally gets hold of Western Europe - German confidence falls as Eurozone growth slows down – buy Eurobonds and sell Japanese bonds?
Peter Oberois
Given the strength in Japanese economy and equal weakness in Eurozone economies, it may be fantastic opportunity for a spread position – buy the eurobond and sell the Japanese bond.
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Japan to raise rates fast as economic growth accelerates – bullish for Yen and bearish for Japanese bonds and Nikkei 225
Peter Oberois
It is definitely bullish for Yen. Technically Yen is in the right position to go higher in the long term. The Japanese bonds yielding very little for decades can take a pounding in coming months as rates go higher.
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President Bush and Democrats plan to work together in helping US automakers manage healthcare cost, energy and trade – time to buy GM and Ford?
Marla Guthrie
It resembles the initiatives that former US President Ronald Reagan took in late eighties. The measures made it necessary for Japanese carmakers start assembling and making cars in US based plants.
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New legislation in 2007 Democratic Congress will bring oversight into hedge funds – positive or negative for stocks, commodities and bonds?
Joe Weinman
The commodity boom can correct big time if hedge funds are asked to operate in a more transparent environment.
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The effect on stock market as Democrats plan to cut taxes and fix the despised Alternative Minimum Tax
Fred Day
The stock market can be a big gainer. It is becoming clear that the Democratic Congress will focus on cutting taxes for the middle class and fix the despised Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). The effect of these on the financial markets can be immense.
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