ISM Manufacturing data shows the economy is struggling to float above water plagued with underemployment
Arun Sinha
Nov. 1, 2006

Market expects the ISM data to come around 53.0 a notch above last month’s 52.9. Anything-above 50 shows that the economy is still expanding. But the analytical models are manifesting danger signals for a very long time. The bond market confirmation with the ISM data says that the economy is literally struggling to keep above water with this huge amount of liquidity in the system. The liquidity in the system cannot be measured in traditional terms because these days the central banks manipulate and create false notions. It can very well be measured against the gold price acceleration rate. That says though the money supply has been curtailed very recently, on the long term the liquity exists at unprecedented levels. In other world the central bank is printing money like crazy.

Given the excess liquidity backdrop, the struggling economy with ISM data just above 50 manifests a weak economy with huge underemployment. The underemployment with high capacity utilization also shows the unproductive manufacturing and service demand and supply in the system.

ISM Manufacturing data shows the economy is struggling to float above water plagued with underemployment
Arun Sinha
Market expects the ISM data to come around 53.0 a notch above last month’s 52.9. Anything-above 50 shows that the economy is still expanding.
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Home Resales Pending data shows slow but steady depletion of real estate values – result of debt, underemployment and stagflation
Tarun Sikhdar
The pending resale of home figure is a clear indication that real estate prices will decline slowly as people understand there is nothing much left in that sector other than owning their own residential properties...
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Lower construction spending is another sign of very weak real estate market and underemployed stagflation plagued economy
Sam Adelton
After providing all that incentives, the builders understand they cannot sustain the sales. The population growth is there but the underemployment in the economy will not allow selling homes and condos at that price levels.
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Market expected Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 109.5 but it came 4% short – another confirmation of recession
Sam Adelton
The stock market will be hurt the worst. While rates will remain comparatively high, the growth and earnings will collapse.
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Chicago Purchasing Managers index shows the economy is headed for a deep recession and most pundits and Fed are all wrong
Sam Adelton
The Chico PMI just says the recession has started within the umbrella of stagflation. It is expected now to turn into deflation driven deep recession if not depression.
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The jump in Conference Board Consumer Confidence shows temporary cheer in the mind of people on gas prices and stock market
Ratan Sen
The jump in Conference Board Consumer Confidence is interesting. People are relived at what they see in gas stations. They are happy to see the Dow going up steadily.
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Chicago purchasing managers' report will show a sharp decline – a long-term negative for the economy
Marla Guthrie
The Chicago PMI expected to come at 58 down from 62.1 last month. The trend is downwards and the effects are clear from auto and housing sectors....
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