Like the NY Empire State Index, the Philadelphia Fed survey data manifests the robust growth of US economy
Peter Oberois
Oct. 18, 2006

Market expected NY Empire State Index to come at 13.0 from prior month’s 13.8. It came out on Monday at 22.9 surprising every one. Tomorrow around 12 Noon Philadelphia Fed survey data is set to surprise all. It will be equally robust. The manufacturing side of the economy is actually booming right now. The Philadelphia Fed survey data is heavier on manufacturing the NY Empire State Index.

The economy is actually accelerating right now. The regional indices manifest the strength. The fact that the market gurus cannot predict the same accurately says there are tremendous inflation pressures within the stagflation. Normally stagflation always shoots the inflation part of the equation at the very end make the central banks commit to the mistakes. Most likely Fed will raise rates three times in 2007 as the housing side improves and real estate start booming again although modestly. The robust growth and positive core PPI and CPI are creating the ground work for Fed to start thinking about inflation again.

Stocks are seeing its highs. A super growth is never good for stocks. When Fed is in non-restrictive mode, stock market suffers. The bond yields may retest the recent highs. When Fed raises the rates and brings back the growth below 3% next year, stocks again will make a move on the upside.

Like the NY Empire State Index, the Philadelphia Fed survey data manifests the robust growth of US economy
Peter Oberois
Market expected NY Empire State Index to come at 13.0 from prior month’s 13.8. It came out on Monday at 22.9 surprising every one. Tomorrow around 12 Noon Philadelphia Fed survey data is set to surprise all. It will be equally robust.
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New orders, jobless claims, money supply, average workweek, and stock prices – all point to a surprisingly robust US economy...
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Initial Claims report manifest a stagnating state of underemployment
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Initial Claims - the number of people receiving state benefits and the insured unemployment rate both show a stagnating state of underemployment.
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Housing starts are amazingly strong but building permits are down – how does it affect real estate, economy, stocks, gold, dollar and bonds?
Joesph Weinman
Housing starts are amazingly strong but building permits are down. Some analysts and economists are perplexed. When you analyze the data more closely region by region you see a very interesting pattern.
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The core CPI and housing starts defy the gloom and doom theories – when can Dow reach 15000?
Kirsten Riegel
After building a solid base between 10,000 and 11,400 Dow is in a position to accelerate upwards. The wild card is oil price. If oil price falls below $40 in the next six months, Dow can surprise all accelerating towards 15,000.
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With oil price down, the airlines stocks in a rebound mode - AMR swung to a third-quarter profit of $15 million
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The airlines stocks are in the middle of a solid rebound. The lower oil price and worldwide growth is working for them.
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