While NY Fed survey will show weakness, the Philadelphia Fed survey will show solid strength – how do interpret the mixed signals?
Mike Moran
Oct. 15, 2006

NY Empire State Index is expected to slump to 12 from 13.8 in previous month. The stat is due at 8.30 AM on Monday, October 16th. However, a similar measure from Philadelphia Fed survey is expected to show a rebound in activity. That stat is due on October 19th around 12 Noon.

Economists are struggling to make out the real picture from the two results. In order to know more and understand what is happening behind the scenes, you need to look at the two surveys and how they are reported.

NY Empire State Index is less heavily oriented to manufacturing sector than the Philadelphia Fed survey. The Philadelphia Fed survey shows strength in core manufacturing. The NY survey will manifest in weakness in production in factories, mines, utilities and auto assembly plants. The Philadelphia Fed survey will show strength core manufacturing area other than those.

While core manufacturing is strong, there are signs of spot weaknesses. That can be signs of correction in the economy or start of major downturn. When you combine the bond market signals with these Fed reports, you can get better signals. The first report will be weak followed by the next report. Thing to watch will be how the bond market and dollar index react within in fifteen minutes of the reports. The stronger action of the bond and currency markets will just confirm the primary directions in the economy.

While NY Fed survey will show weakness, the Philadelphia Fed survey will show solid strength – how do interpret the mixed signals?
Mike Moran
Economists are struggling to make out the real picture from the two results. In order to know more and understand what is happening behind the scenes, you need to look at the two surveys and how they are reported.
READ MORE>>

A slightly lower Capacity Utilization will further show lower inflation pressures but a long term topping action is sending scary signals
Alan Hershey
On 17th around 8.30 AM a very interesting stat will be out – the capacity utilization. The market is expecting 82.1% from prior 82.4%. It will be bullish for stocks and bonds. The slightly lower number shows healthy economy with less inflation pressures.
READ MORE>>

The leading indicators will surprise every one and the dollar is set to rally on that
Sam Adelton
The new orders, jobless claims, money supply, average workweek, building permits, and stock prices all will points higher.
READ MORE>>

Housing Starts will show weakness like never seen before since February 2003 - a recession eminent?
Fred Day
While some economists are expecting a surprise from the builders on the positive side, the number most likely will show slump. Housing Starts will show weakness like never seen before since February 2003.
READ MORE>>

Prices paid by U.S. consumers will fall in September - is it less inflation or start of scary deflation?
Paula Zubeda
Prices paid by U.S. consumers will fall in September. The consumer price index gained 0.02% in August. Most likely it will fall o.4% in September. The lower energy prices especially gasoline in the pump stations will be a major factor.
READ MORE>>

Corporations finding it hard to raise prices to match increasing raw material and labor costs – what is the effect on stock market?
Peter Oberois
The cost of input for output has risen steadily in the last four years in a very stealth way. The purchasing power of consumers at the same has plummeted steadily. The scenario is ugly at the best and outright scary at the worst.
READ MORE>>

MORE ARTICLES >>