Syrian President Bashar al Assad visiting Russia - looks for Military Assurance from Russian President Putin
Balaji Reddy, Special Correspondent
January 26, 2005

Vladimir Putin (L) Bashar al Assad (R)

The Iraq election may turn the heat on Syria. Syria is threatened by the American Forces in Iraq and the possibility that Iraq will declare war against Syria for supporting insurgency.

Syrian President Bashar al Assad visiting Russia at this moment. There were some rumors that Syria is planning to buy missiles form Russia. It was denied by both Russia and Syria. 

Syria knows very well no Russian missile can save then from the World’s finest military power. What Assad needs is a full-fledged security guarantee that Saddam never received from the Russians.

No one knows what Russia will do. Russian President Putin even probably does not know what to do. Is it worth a military confrontation with America over Syria? Russians will be answering that question to themselves in the secrecy of Kremlin in the next few days.

Russia says it will write off 73 percent of the $13.4 billion debt that Syria owes it. That is not a very good sign for the Syrians. When Russians offer something like that, there are indications of what may follow. Russians did not provide what Saddam wanted. America would have never challenged Iraq if Russian military had taken the task to defend the same.

Assad will press for a for military security guarantee. In 1971, Mrs Indira Gandhi, then Prime Minister of India got a similar guarantee. India liberated Bangladesh from the Pakistanis who were supported by the Americans. When Indian Army was about to make the final assault on Bangladesh, America decided to send the seventh fleet. But in the Bay of Bengal Russian nuclear submarines were already in position and Pacific Ocean fleets reported that more Russian subs were on their way.

The world silently waited for the third world war to start in Bay of Bengal. In the final hour America turned the Seventh Fleet away. India staged the final assault, liberated Bangladesh within a week, transferred power to Bangladeshi leader Sheik Mujibur Rehman and quickly got out of that country with more than 100,000 Pakistani Prisoner of Wars (POW).

What Assad really will ask for is a similar Russian guarantee from Putin. Before Iraq war, Russia was different. It respected American friendship more than anything. Today things are different. No one knows if America and Russia are enemies or friends. No one really can guess what Assad can expect from the Russians.

Another factor, which will finally determine response from the Russians, is the answer to the question – can Russia really protect Syria or any other country from the World’s only super power?