You did not notice but the third world war started – it is the fight for dominance in oil and trade
Balaji Reddy, Special Correspondent
January 10, 2005

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Russians are still recovering from the century old communism. They are being pushed by the Americans in Ukraine, in Iraq, in Georgia and so on. They are planning to use oil as a weapon. They have oil – lots of it. They also have solid customer next door who can be an excellent provider of trade and finance – China. Russia’s covert nationalization of Yukos oil company and subsequent decision to sell parts of the same to China and possibly India just proves what we are talking about.

The Europeans are watching the world war of oil and trade nervously as it unfolds in front of their own eyes. Philosophically they are in tune with America and the allies. The recent Iraq war created some dampening of relations but as time goes by, they will get realigned with America and the allies. They are also wooing India on their side promising outsourcing contracts – knowing very well Indians love quick money the easy way and the Indian Government are run by the so called human trading oligarchs.

Americans are the only official superpower. They are influencing the world their way. Iraq definitely did not work out well. But they are probably in the best shape because if needed they can tap into Alaska and Canada. America’s problem is high standard of living, lack of high paying jobs and negative trade balance. Bush Administration realizes that and is fighting it out in their own way. The trade imbalance for America is not a big issue unlike in case of India. While common Indians have no clue about the fact that they just cannot afford to use oil for luxury and foreign goods and services based on promises of imported jobs, American consumer market is strong. If Americans can control their private (not public) debt, which are home mortgages, credit cards and other personal and corporate loans, America will be fine. There is a lot of talk about America’s problem with social security fund, budget deficit and so on. While no other big countries have anything like social security. Bush Administration is taking some correcting measures on that front. America’s biggest challenge though is in securing oil and positive trade balance. That is where the world war is being fought.

Al-Queda understood the new war on oil and trade very late. The traditional terrorism is not going to take them anywhere. They are now planning to attack Middle Eastern oil installations, destabilize Governments in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and create insurgency in Iraq. Soon they will realize that they have little power and the world has put them in a corner with little significance any further.

The third world war is being fought on oil and trade. China, Russia and India understand now the oil game. Brazil and China both are focusing on Venezuelan oil. American are securing Middle Eastern oil supply and ensuring on their traditional oil infrastructure. But the coming fight for oil and trade will be fierce as India and China becomes more oil hungry.

Europe, America and Japan is in a position to move into alternative energy sources, Most likely Hydrogen and solar power with some help from nuclear power will solve the problem for them. It will be interesting to see what the Russian, Indian and Chinese do.

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